Explore Ireland's Future
Use this interactive tool to see how choices on housing, healthcare, climate, technology, and more could shape Ireland's economy and society over the next 40 years.
PICK scenarios to reveal the long-term forecast from Department of Finance research. Explore Ireland's Future
You decide.
Step 1 of 7
Ireland faces rising risks from climate change.
Floods and extreme weather may prove costly, even as we push ahead with the green transition.
Reaching net-zero will involve significant costs, though these are expected to ease over time.
The overall impact on Ireland's economy and public finances will depend on many factors, including how successful global climate efforts are.
How much of the damage is covered by the State? How much of the transition cost is publicly funded?
For more details, see Future Forty: Climate Change and the Green Transition Deep Dive.
Select a box to choose your scenario:
Step 2 of 7
Families are getting smaller in Ireland and around the world. In 1960, Irish women had an average of 4.1 children. Today, that number is just 1.53.
This is below the level needed to keep population size steady.
As fertility falls, people will live longer, and Ireland's population will get older.
This means more spending on pensions, healthcare and social support. Fewer new workers will slow economic growth, putting pressure on public finances in the years ahead.
For more details, see Future Forty: Demographic Outlook Deep Dive.
Select a box to choose your scenario:
Step 3 of 7
The number of people moving to, or leaving Ireland is a key driver of population change, but it is very difficult to predict right now, global migration is at record highs, and Ireland has seen rapid growth: between April 2023 and April 2024, net migration (the difference between the number of people emigrating and immigrating) was 79,300.
This boosts the workforce but also increases demand for housing, infrastructure, and public services.
With an ageing population, migration will be key to keeping our labour force growing. If net migration was kept at zero, the labour force would start shrinking by 2035.
For more details, see Future Forty: Demographic Outlook Deep Dive.
Select a box to choose your scenario:
Step 4 of 7
Housing shortages have created significant “pent-up” demand in the market and has pushed prices up. Future Forty models the impact of building 60,000 new homes per year by 2030 and continuing at that level until demand eases.
Costs to the State will depend on how much of this new housing is built as social housing and how much of the rental market is financially supported while prices are elevated.
For more details, see Future Forty: Housing Outlook Deep Dive.
Select a box to choose your scenario:
Remember: Other choices you make will also impact the housing projections, primarily by adjusting demand via the population projections.
Step 5 of 7
Ireland has a relatively young populations and scores well on life expectancy, mortality, and overall health. Yet, healthcare spending is high by international standards. As the population grows and ages, these fiscal pressures will rise.
Globally, health systems have struggled to deliver productivity growth in line with that delivered in the wider economy. Future Forty outlines three possible paths for future healthcare costs, based on how overall population health changes, and how efficiently the health system performs.
For more details, see Future Forty: Healthcare Deep Dive.
Select a box to choose your scenario:
Step 6 of 7
Digitalisation is the spread of new technologies across society and the economy that can make workers and businesses more productive. Even small gains can add up to big benefits over time, and Future Forty sees it as a key opportunity for long-term economic growth.
Research shows that more investment in digital tools leads to faster adoption, higher productivity, and lasting impacts on the economy and public finances.
For more details, see Future Forty: Digitalisation Deep Dive.
Select a box to choose your scenario:
These scenarios are based on past links between digital investment, adoption, and productivity. But with emerging technologies like AI, future gains or disruptions could be much bigger than forecast.
Step 7 of 7
Rising geopolitical tensions and protectionist policies could mean the world becomes less connected as globalisation slows or even reverses. For a small open economy like Ireland, this could slow trade, investment, and growth.
Future Forty explores what this might mean for Ireland's economy and public finances, with all scenarios assuming current 'windfall' tax receipts drop from 2030 to 2040.
For more details, see Future Forty: Deglobalisation Deep Dive.